2026 NFL Week 9 Predictions and Results, Graded
All 15 games of Week 9 in the 2026 NFL season are now graded. Before kickoff our model picked 13 of the 15 winners, one fewer than the market favorite. THE PLAY, our one headline call for each game, won 7 and lost 8, a loss of $8.10 on $75 staked. During play the live engine's win probability scored a Brier of 0.084 over 17,666 moments, behind the incumbent model at 0.077 and behind the market at 0.066, where lower is better.
Pregame calls
Before kickoff the model picked a winner in 15 games, and those picks won 13 and lost 2. The market favorite, the side the market priced above 50%, won 14 and lost 1. Against the spread our side won 8 and lost 7, and on totals it won 8 and lost 6. Scored as probabilities, our pregame win chances had a Brier score of 0.133 against 0.137 for the market, where lower is better, so ours were the closer forecasts this week.
THE PLAY
THE PLAY is the one headline call we publish for each game, staked at $5 at the price it showed. THE PLAY won 7 and lost 8 across 15 games, winning 46.7% of the time at an average price of 47.4 cents, a loss of $8.10 on $75 staked. The largest single return was a gain of $4.63 on JAX -10.0 in JAX at BAL, priced at 52 cents.
The live engine
During play the live engine reprices every game about every ten seconds. Across 17,666 in-game moments in 15 games its win probability scored a Brier of 0.084. The incumbent, a simpler baseline model, scored 0.077 and the market scored 0.066. Lower is better.
| Quarter | Moments | Engine | Incumbent | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 3,264 | 0.104 | 0.107 | 0.088 |
| Q2 | 6,128 | 0.098 | 0.088 | 0.079 |
| Q3 | 3,593 | 0.074 | 0.064 | 0.054 |
| Q4 | 4,681 | 0.059 | 0.054 | 0.042 |
| Game | 17,666 | 0.084 | 0.077 | 0.066 |
Overtime is left out of this grade, so 137 overtime moments were set aside.
In-game edges and hot plays
An in-game edge is a stretch where the engine disagreed with the market price on the same side, counted once at the first price it showed. Across 15 games the engine logged 948 edges, and the 947 that could be graded won 44.7% of the time at an average price of 48.3 cents. Held to the final they returned a loss of 5.0 cents per $1 contract after fees, and sold 15 minutes after entry they returned a loss of 4.7 cents.
Hot plays are the edges that come right after a score, a turnover or a big play. Across 15 games the engine logged 383 hot plays, and they won 37.1% of the time at an average price of 45.8 cents. Held to the final they returned a loss of 10.0 cents per $1 contract after fees, and sold 15 minutes after entry they returned a loss of 5.1 cents.
Live player props
Live prop projections were graded in 15 games, 435 props in all. At kickoff the average projection missed the final stat by 14.4, measured in each stat's own units, and by the end of the third quarter the average miss was 8.7. The Brier score of the projected chance of going over the line was 0.249 at kickoff and 0.133 at the end of the third quarter. The market's own chance scored 0.245 on the 317 props with a market price.
- Receiving yards, 158 props: an average miss of 19.0 yards at kickoff and 9.9 yards at the end of the third quarter.
- Receptions, 155 props: an average miss of 1.3 catches at kickoff and 0.7 catches at the end of the third quarter.
- Rushing yards, 92 props: an average miss of 16.1 yards at kickoff and 10.0 yards at the end of the third quarter.
- Passing yards, 30 props: an average miss of 52.7 yards at kickoff and 39.0 yards at the end of the third quarter.
The best and worst calls
The best call is the pregame winner pick where we disagreed most with the market and were right, and the worst is the one where we disagreed most and were wrong. The best came in TB at CHI: we gave CHI a 77% chance to win when the market gave them 66%, and CHI won 27 to 24. The worst came in DAL at IND: we gave IND a 55% chance to win when the market gave them 38%, and DAL won 27 to 23.
Every game
| Game | Final | Our winner | Spread | Total | THE PLAY | $5 result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX at BAL | JAX 33, BAL 10 | JAX 83%, won | JAX −10, won | Over 39.5, won | JAX -10.0, won | +$4.63 |
| CIN at ATL | CIN 34, ATL 17 | CIN 58%, won | ATL +3, lost | Under 52.5, won | Under 52.0, won | +$4.55 |
| CLE at NO | NO 23, CLE 22 (OT) | NO 70%, won | NO −3.5, lost | Under 42.5, lost | NO -4.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| DAL at IND | DAL 27, IND 23 | IND 55%, lost | IND +4.5, won | Over 51.5, lost | Over 51.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| DEN at CAR | DEN 26, CAR 21 | DEN 55%, won | CAR +3, lost | Over 44.5, won | NO: DEN by 3.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| DET at MIA | DET 19, MIA 9 | DET 76%, won | DET −6.5, won | Over 49.5, lost | DET -6.5, won | +$4.55 |
| LA at WAS | LA 20, WAS 13 | LA 66%, won | LA −4.5, won | Over 47.5, lost | Over 48.0, lost | −$5.00 |
| NYG at PHI | NYG 19, PHI 11 | NYG 57%, won | PHI +3, lost | Over 38.5, lost | Over 37.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| NYJ at KC | KC 35, NYJ 12 | KC 76%, won | KC −9.5, won | Under 47.5, won | NYJ wins, lost | −$5.00 |
| HOU at LAC | HOU 44, LAC 22 | HOU 66%, won | LAC +5.5, lost | Over 40.5, won | Over 40.5, won | +$4.55 |
| LV at SF | SF 38, LV 17 | SF 76%, won | SF −9.5, won | no lean | LV wins, lost | −$5.00 |
| ARI at SEA | SEA 17, ARI 3 | SEA 77%, won | SEA −8.5, won | Under 39.5, won | SEA -8.5, won | +$4.55 |
| GB at NE | GB 45, NE 27 | NE 61%, lost | NE −3, lost | Over 44.5, won | Over 44.5, won | +$4.55 |
| TB at CHI | CHI 27, TB 24 | CHI 77%, won | CHI −6, lost | Over 47.5, won | Over 47.5, won | +$4.55 |
| BUF at MIN | BUF 23, MIN 6 | BUF 65%, won | BUF −3, won | Over 43.5, lost | Over 44.0, lost | −$5.00 |
How to read this
A win rate means little without the price paid, so every rate here sits beside the average price, and a price of 53 cents means the market put the chance at about 53%. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what happened, from 0 for a perfect forecast to 1 for a certain one that was wrong, so lower is better. In-game returns are per $1 contract after fees.
Every game, every edge and every prop behind these numbers is on the NFL results page, graded as each game finishes.