Frequently Asked Questions
Plain answers to the questions people ask when they first open LazyEdge: what the edge and the green and yellow colors mean, what labels such as PRICE_GAP and RATING_Q measure, what each plan includes, how the live numbers update, and where a bot finds the price gaps in the API.
Getting started
What is LazyEdge?
A data terminal for sports prediction markets. For every NBA, NFL and MLB game we cover, our model's number sits beside the live price on Kalshi and Polymarket, before the game and while it is played. LazyEdge publishes data, not advice: it shows where our number and the market disagree, and every call is graded in public afterward.
Which sports are live?
The NBA, the NFL and MLB. Pick a sport from the sport switcher in the sidebar, or from the menu on a phone, and the navigation changes to that sport's screens.
Where should I start?
Open the Markets board for your sport. Each row is a game with the market price, our number and the gap between them. Click a game to open its full screen, where the live price, the ladders and the props sit together.
Is this financial advice?
No. LazyEdge is a research and data tool. Every probability, edge and sizing figure is a model output for information only. Prediction markets carry real financial risk, so never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Plans and access
What does each plan include?
Quant Scout ($9.99 for seven days) and Observer Node ($29.99 a month, or a one time 30 days) open the full web terminal. The Quant Node ($49.99 a month) opens the web terminal and the API. Every plan covers every sport we run.
What can a free account see?
A free account plays the weekly NFL pick'em, reads the graded results and the blog, and manages its settings. The market screens need a plan, and a locked item in the navigation opens the plans page.
How do Lazy Lions holders get access?
Connect your wallet on the sign in page and sign one message. One Lazy Lion opens the full web terminal, and five or more open the API as well. Lions in wallets linked to your Lazy Lions profile count toward the total, and the holding is checked again every 30 days.
Who can use the API?
The API comes with the Quant Node plan ($49.99) or with five or more Lazy Lions. Quant Scout and Observer Node are web terminal plans and do not include it.
Reading the numbers
What is the edge?
Our probability minus the market price, in percentage points. A price of 45 cents reads as 45 percent, so if our number is 52 percent the edge is +7 points. A positive edge means the contract costs less than our number says it is worth; a negative edge means it costs more.
What is fair value?
The price our model puts on a contract: its probability of paying out, written in cents. A fair value of 62 cents means our model gives the outcome a 62 percent chance.
Why is a number green or yellow?
The color shows how far apart our number and the market are. Green is a bigger gap, yellow a smaller one, and grey means little or no gap. On the NFL board, a spread or total turns yellow when our number is 1 point away from the line and green at 2.5 points, and a moneyline turns yellow at 2 percentage points and green at 5. The color only measures the size of the gap. It does not say who will win and it is not a recommendation, so read it together with the label beside it.
Is THE PLAY a recommendation?
No. THE PLAY is the row where our number sits furthest from the market on a main line for that game. For example, if the total line is 42.5 and our model projects 50 points, our number sits on the over side, which means 43 or more points in the game. The label beside it says what kind of gap it is, and what you do with the number is your call.
What do PRICE_GAP, RATING_Q and LEAN mean?
They say what kind of gap a row is. PRICE_GAP means our probability is at least 3 points above the price you would pay on the exchange, on a tight quote. RATING_Q means our number and the sportsbooks are far apart, 5 or more points on a total or 4 or more on a spread: a warning that our team ratings see the game very differently, not a play, and those rows have mostly graded worse, especially totals. LEAN is a smaller gap and NONE is little or no gap. TAIL_RUNG is a line away from the main line, and ROLE_Q is a prop where we read the player's role differently from the market.
Do the edges include fees?
The edge is the raw gap between our number and the price. Kalshi charges a fee of 0.07 times P times (1 minus P) per contract, about 1.75 cents at a 50 cent price and less toward either end, rounded up on the whole order. Where a screen shows net expected value, the fee is already taken out.
What does MODEL PENDING mean?
Our model has not priced that game yet, usually because the morning lines have not landed. Until it does, the screen leaves the fair value and the edge blank rather than show a placeholder.
What do the other status labels mean?
NO PRICE means the market has no live quote. LIVE BOOK PENDING means the book is not yet tracking that game, so no edge is shown against it. WAITING ON INJ REPORT marks a player who was on last week's injury report while this week's report is not out. ROLE QUESTION marks a prop where our model and the market read the player's role differently, which is a depth chart question and not a price.
What is the Kelly figure?
A sizing reference from the Kelly criterion: the share of a bankroll that the edge at that price would support. The terminal always shows a scaled down fraction of the full Kelly figure (the parlay builder shows a quarter of it). It describes the edge; it is not a recommendation to trade.
Live games
How often do the live numbers update?
The market prices stream from Kalshi and Polymarket as they change. The NBA engine reprices on every play, the NFL engine about every ten seconds, and the MLB model about every 30 seconds. A price that has gone stale is marked and is never used for an edge.
What are the ladders?
Kalshi lists a game's spread and total as a ladder of lines, one contract per line. The ladder panels price every line with our probability beside the market's, so the gap shows on whichever line sits furthest from our number.
What are the player props?
Each player's projection beside the market line for points, rebounds, yards or receptions. During a game the projection updates from what the player has so far plus the rest of the game, and a flag marks a player whose live projection has crossed his line.
Do the buttons place trades?
No. A BUY or TRADE button opens that market on Kalshi or Polymarket in a new tab. Nothing is ever placed for you.
The api and bots
What does the API carry?
The same numbers as the terminal: our number for every game, the exchange price beside it, how old that price is, the spread and total ladders, props and the graded results, for the NBA, the NFL and MLB. Every endpoint is listed at lazyedge.net/api-docs.
How do I get a key?
With the Quant Node plan or five or more Lazy Lions, open Settings, then API Access, and issue a key. Send it as Authorization: Bearer followed by the key on every request. The key is shown once, so store it safely.
Can a bot trade from the feed on its own?
Yes. Point your bot at the API, give it your own rules, and it can act on Kalshi or Polymarket while you do something else. A plain guide for AI agents is at lazyedge.net/llms.txt.
My bot only uses PRICE_GAP rows and sees none. Where are they?
Read every row of /v1/nfl/board/{game_id} and keep the ones whose label is PRICE_GAP. Two fields look similar and are not the same: signal on /v1/nfl/edges is the moneyline against the sportsbooks, and play_label names only the single headline row for each game. A bot that reads either one sees far fewer price gaps than the board carries.
Results and pick'em
Where is the record?
Every call is graded in public after the game, misses included, at lazyedge.net/results. In play, our live number is graded against the Kalshi price at the same moment.
What is the Brier score?
A measure of how close a probability came to what happened: the average squared gap between the forecast and the result. Lower is closer. A coin flip at 50 percent scores 0.25 on every game.
What is the pick'em?
A weekly NFL contest. The free contest is open to everyone, and a paid pool is entered with $LAZY. Picks lock at each game's kickoff, and the standings are on the leaderboard.