NFL Results, Graded Game by Game
Every NFL number LazyEdge publishes is graded here as each game finishes, against the final score and against the price the market showed at the time.
The 2026 season so far
Graded through Weeks 1 to 7: 107 of 107 games, updated October 29, 2026. Lower Brier scores are better.
| Measure | Our record | Beside it |
|---|---|---|
| Winners | 71 won, 36 lost | Market favorite: 68 won, 38 lost |
| Against the spread | 54 won, 48 lost, 5 pushes | — |
| Totals | 51 won, 56 lost | — |
| Pregame win probability, Brier | 0.217 | Market: 0.230 |
| THE PLAY, $5 a game | 46 won, 61 lost | +$7.59 on $535 staked |
| Every pregame pick, $5 each | 27,679 picks | −$2,855.37 on $138,395 staked |
| Live engine win probability, Brier | 0.166 | Incumbent: 0.169. Market: 0.166 |
Week 7, game by game
| Game | Final | Our winner | Spread | Total | THE PLAY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at CHI | CHI 30, NE 24 | CHI 56%, won | NE +3, lost | Under 50.5, lost | NO: CHI by 3.0+, lost (−$5.00) |
| PIT at NO | PIT 16, NO 10 | PIT 60%, won | PIT −3, won | Over 43.5, lost | Over 43.5, lost (−$5.00) |
| CIN at BAL | CIN 35, BAL 13 | CIN 63%, won | CIN −3, won | Over 46.5, won | CIN -3.0, won (+$4.76) |
| CLE at TEN | CLE 27, TEN 24 | TEN 50%, lost | TEN +2.5, lost | Over 36.5, won | Over 37.0, won (+$4.55) |
| IND at MIN | MIN 16, IND 10 | MIN 74%, won | MIN −6.5, lost | Over 41.5, lost | Over 41.5, lost (−$5.00) |
| MIA at NYJ | MIA 28, NYJ 25 | NYJ 55%, lost | MIA +3.5, won | Over 39.5, won | Over 39.5, won (+$4.55) |
| NYG at HOU | NYG 27, HOU 21 (OT) | HOU 66%, lost | NYG +10, won | Over 42.5, won | Over 42.5, won (+$4.55) |
| SF at ATL | ATL 29, SF 20 | ATL 55%, won | ATL +2.5, won | Over 50.5, lost | Over 50.5, lost (−$5.00) |
| TB at CAR | TB 43, CAR 13 | CAR 64%, lost | CAR −3, lost | Over 44.5, won | Over 44.5, won (+$4.55) |
| DEN at ARI | DEN 30, ARI 16 | DEN 71%, won | DEN −4.5, won | Over 42.5, won | Over 43.5, won (+$4.55) |
| GB at DET | DET 20, GB 17 | DET 63%, won | DET −3.5, lost | Over 55.5, lost | DET -3.5, lost (−$5.00) |
| LA at LV | LA 35, LV 21 | LA 70%, won | LA −3.5, won | Over 48.5, won | Over 48.5, won (+$4.55) |
| KC at SEA | SEA 20, KC 3 | SEA 62%, won | SEA −3, won | Over 42.5, lost | Over 42.5, lost (−$5.00) |
| DAL at PHI | DAL 38, PHI 21 | DAL 69%, won | DAL −4.5, won | Over 43.5, won | DAL by 5.0+, won (+$5.20) |
What is graded
Our pregame winner, spread and total calls, THE PLAY for each game and the $5 paper ledger, the live win probability engine beside the market, every in-game edge and hot play, and the live player prop projections from kickoff to the end of the third quarter.
How to read it
A win rate means little without the price paid, so every rate sits beside the average price. Probability forecasts are scored with the Brier score, where lower is better. In-game returns are per one dollar contract after fees, held to the final or sold two, five or fifteen minutes later.
Open to everyone
The record is public and so is the data behind it: the same numbers are served by the LazyEdge API. One week is a small sample, so read each week as a record, not a verdict. This is data, not advice.