2026 NFL Week 8 Predictions and Results, Graded
All 14 games of Week 8 in the 2026 NFL season are now graded. Before kickoff our model picked 8 of the 14 winners, two fewer than the market favorite. THE PLAY, our one headline call for each game, won 7 and lost 7, a gain of $1.79 on $70 staked. During play the live engine's win probability scored a Brier of 0.191 over 10,452 moments, ahead of the incumbent model at 0.194 and behind the market at 0.171, where lower is better.
Pregame calls
Before kickoff the model picked a winner in 14 games, and those picks won 8 and lost 6. The market favorite, the side the market priced above 50%, won 10 and lost 4. Against the spread our side won 7 and lost 7, and on totals it won 7 and lost 7. Scored as probabilities, our pregame win chances had a Brier score of 0.189 against 0.188 for the market, where lower is better, so the market's were the closer forecasts this week.
THE PLAY
THE PLAY is the one headline call we publish for each game, staked at $5 at the price it showed. THE PLAY won 7 and lost 7 across 14 games, winning 50.0% of the time at an average price of 45.7 cents, a gain of $1.79 on $70 staked. The largest single return was a gain of $7.82 on CHI wins in CHI at SEA, priced at 39 cents.
The live engine
During play the live engine reprices every game about every ten seconds. Across 10,452 in-game moments in 14 games its win probability scored a Brier of 0.191. The incumbent, a simpler baseline model, scored 0.194 and the market scored 0.171. Lower is better.
| Quarter | Moments | Engine | Incumbent | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 1,882 | 0.183 | 0.185 | 0.167 |
| Q2 | 3,579 | 0.220 | 0.226 | 0.191 |
| Q3 | 2,154 | 0.202 | 0.203 | 0.177 |
| Q4 | 2,837 | 0.152 | 0.153 | 0.144 |
| Game | 10,452 | 0.191 | 0.194 | 0.171 |
Overtime is left out of this grade, so 84 overtime moments were set aside.
In-game edges and hot plays
An in-game edge is a stretch where the engine disagreed with the market price on the same side, counted once at the first price it showed. Across 14 games the engine logged 859 edges, and the 857 that could be graded won 47.3% of the time at an average price of 48.5 cents. Held to the final they returned a loss of 2.6 cents per $1 contract after fees, and sold 15 minutes after entry they returned a loss of 4.1 cents.
Hot plays are the edges that come right after a score, a turnover or a big play. Across 14 games the engine logged 399 hot plays, and they won 51.1% of the time at an average price of 48.5 cents. Held to the final they returned a gain of 1.2 cents per $1 contract after fees, and sold 15 minutes after entry they returned a loss of 2.4 cents.
Live player props
Live prop projections were graded in 14 games, 403 props in all. At kickoff the average projection missed the final stat by 18.6, measured in each stat's own units, and by the end of the third quarter the average miss was 9.8. The Brier score of the projected chance of going over the line was 0.275 at kickoff and 0.126 at the end of the third quarter. The market's own chance scored 0.245 on the 304 props with a market price.
- Receiving yards, 149 props: an average miss of 22.7 yards at kickoff and 12.0 yards at the end of the third quarter.
- Receptions, 147 props: an average miss of 1.7 catches at kickoff and 0.8 catches at the end of the third quarter.
- Rushing yards, 79 props: an average miss of 23.2 yards at kickoff and 11.0 yards at the end of the third quarter.
- Passing yards, 28 props: an average miss of 73.3 yards at kickoff and 41.9 yards at the end of the third quarter.
The best and worst calls
The best call is the pregame winner pick where we disagreed most with the market and were right, and the worst is the one where we disagreed most and were wrong. The best came in CLE at PIT: we gave PIT a 70% chance to win when the market gave them 60%, and PIT won 27 to 6. The worst came in BAL at BUF: we gave BAL a 51% chance to win when the market gave them 43%, and BUF won 36 to 10.
Every game
| Game | Final | Our winner | Spread | Total | THE PLAY | $5 result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at GB | GB 27, CAR 19 | GB 66%, won | GB −3.5, won | Under 47.5, won | GB -3.5, won | +$4.46 |
| ARI at DAL | ARI 33, DAL 30 (OT) | DAL 66%, lost | ARI +7, won | Under 54.5, lost | Under 54.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| ATL at TB | TB 16, ATL 0 | ATL 51%, lost | ATL +2.5, lost | Under 43.5, won | ATL ML, lost | −$5.00 |
| BAL at BUF | BUF 36, BAL 10 | BAL 51%, lost | BAL +3, lost | Over 54.5, lost | BAL wins, lost | −$5.00 |
| CLE at PIT | PIT 27, CLE 6 | PIT 70%, won | PIT −3.5, won | Over 38.5, lost | PIT by 4.0+, won | +$5.00 |
| IND at JAX | JAX 42, IND 7 | JAX 72%, won | IND +10, lost | Under 46.5, lost | IND wins, lost | −$5.00 |
| LV at NYJ | LV 38, NYJ 33 | NYJ 56%, lost | NYJ −1.5, lost | Under 46.5, lost | Under 46.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| MIN at DET | DET 19, MIN 15 | DET 50%, won | MIN +3, lost | Over 46.5, lost | MIN wins, lost | −$5.00 |
| TEN at CIN | CIN 43, TEN 36 (OT) | CIN 88%, won | CIN −13.5, lost | Over 45.5, won | Over 46.0, won | +$4.55 |
| LAC at LA | LA 24, LAC 9 | LA 77%, won | LA −6.5, won | Under 45.5, won | LA -6.5, won | +$4.55 |
| KC at DEN | DEN 28, KC 24 | KC 52%, lost | DEN +1.5, won | Over 41.5, won | Over 41.5, won | +$5.00 |
| NE at MIA | NE 24, MIA 19 | NE 72%, won | NE −7, lost | Over 41.5, won | NE by 8.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| PHI at WAS | WAS 27, PHI 10 | WAS 71%, won | WAS −6, won | Under 40.5, won | WAS by 7.0+, won | +$5.42 |
| CHI at SEA | CHI 34, SEA 17 | SEA 58%, lost | CHI +3, won | Under 46.5, lost | CHI wins, won | +$7.82 |
How to read this
A win rate means little without the price paid, so every rate here sits beside the average price, and a price of 53 cents means the market put the chance at about 53%. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what happened, from 0 for a perfect forecast to 1 for a certain one that was wrong, so lower is better. In-game returns are per $1 contract after fees.
Every game, every edge and every prop behind these numbers is on the NFL results page, graded as each game finishes.