2026 NFL Week 3 Digest
All 16 games of Week 3 in the 2026 NFL season are now graded. Before kickoff our model picked 10 of the 16 winners, two more than the market favorite. THE PLAY, our one headline call for each game, won 4 and lost 12, a loss of $11.98 on $80 staked. During play the live engine's win probability scored a Brier of 0.184 over 12,043 moments, ahead of the incumbent model at 0.192 and ahead of the market at 0.188, where lower is better.
Pregame calls
Before kickoff the model picked a winner in 16 games, and those picks won 10 and lost 6. The market favorite, the side the market priced above 50%, won 8 and lost 8. Against the spread our side won 10, lost 5 and pushed 1, and on totals it won 9 and lost 7. Scored as probabilities, our pregame win chances had a Brier score of 0.214 against 0.252 for the market, where lower is better, so ours were the closer forecasts this week.
THE PLAY and the $5 ledger
THE PLAY is the one headline call we publish for each game, and the $5 ledger stakes every pregame pick at $5 at the price it showed. THE PLAY won 4 and lost 12 across 16 games, winning 25.0% of the time at an average price of 29.0 cents, a loss of $11.98 on $80 staked. The largest single return was a gain of $28.33 on CHI by 8.0+ in PHI at CHI, priced at 15 cents.
Every pick in the ledger together, 3,684 of them, won 36.3% of the time at an average price of 36.0 cents and finished with a loss of $1,110.69 on $18,420 staked. By market, player props finished with a loss of $1,446.95, spreads a gain of $267.99, totals a loss of $59.72 and moneylines a gain of $127.99.
The live engine
During play the live engine reprices every game about every ten seconds. Across 12,043 in-game moments in 16 games its win probability scored a Brier of 0.184. The incumbent, a simpler baseline model, scored 0.192 and the market scored 0.188. Lower is better.
| Quarter | Moments | Engine | Incumbent | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 2,122 | 0.259 | 0.257 | 0.265 |
| Q2 | 4,154 | 0.191 | 0.195 | 0.203 |
| Q3 | 2,440 | 0.182 | 0.183 | 0.189 |
| Q4 | 3,327 | 0.127 | 0.152 | 0.118 |
| Game | 12,043 | 0.184 | 0.192 | 0.188 |
In-game edges and hot plays
An in-game edge is a stretch where the engine disagreed with the market price on the same side, counted once at the first price it showed. Across 16 games the engine logged 1,122 edges, and the 993 that could be graded won 52.5% of the time at an average price of 52.6 cents. Held to the final they returned a loss of 1.6 cents per $1 contract after fees, and sold 15 minutes after entry they returned a loss of 4.9 cents.
Hot plays are the edges that come right after a score, a turnover or a big play. Across 16 games the engine logged 573 hot plays, and the 534 that could be graded won 50.2% of the time at an average price of 53.1 cents. Held to the final they returned a loss of 4.3 cents per $1 contract after fees, and sold 15 minutes after entry they returned a loss of 4.5 cents.
Live player props
Live prop projections were graded in 16 games, 471 props in all. At kickoff the average projection missed the final stat by 15.0, measured in each stat's own units, and by the end of the third quarter the average miss was 8.6. The Brier score of the projected chance of going over the line was 0.277 at kickoff and 0.130 at the end of the third quarter. The market's own chance scored 0.251 on the 367 props with a market price.
- Receiving yards, 175 props: an average miss of 20.8 yards at kickoff and 11.3 yards at the end of the third quarter.
- Receptions, 172 props: an average miss of 1.7 catches at kickoff and 0.8 catches at the end of the third quarter.
- Rushing yards, 93 props: an average miss of 17.7 yards at kickoff and 9.2 yards at the end of the third quarter.
- Passing yards, 31 props: an average miss of 48.2 yards at kickoff and 34.3 yards at the end of the third quarter.
The best and worst calls
The best call is the pregame winner pick where we disagreed most with the market and were right, and the worst is the one where we disagreed most and were wrong. The best came in MIN at TB: we gave MIN a 64% chance to win when the market gave them 54%, and MIN won 23 to 16. No pick where we rated a team above the market lost this week.
Every game
| Game | Final | Our winner | Spread | Total | THE PLAY | $5 result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at GB | ATL 35, GB 14 | GB 55%, lost | ATL +4.5, won | Over 42.5, won | NO: GB by 3.0+, won | +$8.51 |
| CAR at CLE | CLE 21, CAR 18 | CLE 51%, won | CLE +1.5, won | Over 41.5, lost | CLE by 8.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| CIN at PIT | PIT 30, CIN 27 | CIN 50%, lost | PIT +3.5, won | Over 42.5, won | PIT by 8.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| HOU at IND | IND 19, HOU 17 | IND 54%, won | IND +1.5, won | Over 42.5, lost | IND by 8.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| KC at MIA | KC 24, MIA 10 | KC 60%, won | MIA +9.5, lost | Over 45.5, lost | Over 45.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| LAC at BUF | BUF 24, LAC 16 | BUF 67%, won | LAC +7, lost | Under 50.5, won | Under 50.0, won | +$4.55 |
| NE at JAX | JAX 35, NE 6 | JAX 52%, won | NE +3, lost | Under 45.5, won | NE by 8.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| NYJ at DET | DET 31, NYJ 24 | DET 72%, won | DET −6.5, won | Over 48.5, won | DET by 8.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| SEA at WAS | WAS 33, SEA 31 | SEA 61%, lost | WAS +8.5, won | Over 40.5, won | Over 42.5, won | +$6.63 |
| TEN at NYG | NYG 12, TEN 7 | NYG 56%, won | TEN +2.5, lost | Over 37.5, lost | Over 44.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| ARI at SF | SF 36, ARI 30 | SF 71%, won | SF −7.5, lost | Over 48.5, won | NO: SF by 2.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| MIN at TB | MIN 23, TB 16 | MIN 64%, won | MIN −1.5, won | Under 42.5, won | MIN by 8.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| BAL at DAL | BAL 34, DAL 31 | BAL 58%, won | BAL −3, push | Over 53.5, won | DAL by 8.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| LV at NO | LV 35, NO 27 | NO 55%, lost | LV +3.5, won | Under 43.5, lost | NO: over 38.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| LA at DEN | DEN 30, LA 26 | LA 54%, lost | DEN +1.5, won | Under 43.5, lost | DEN by 11.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| PHI at CHI | CHI 27, PHI 7 | PHI 54%, lost | CHI +3.5, won | Over 41.5, lost | CHI by 8.0+, won | +$28.33 |
How to read this
A win rate means little without the price paid, so every rate here sits beside the average price, and a price of 53 cents means the market put the chance at about 53%. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what happened, from 0 for a perfect forecast to 1 for a certain one that was wrong, so lower is better. In-game returns are per $1 contract after fees.
Every game, every edge and every prop behind these numbers is on the NFL results page, graded as each game finishes.