2026 NFL Week 2 Digest
All 16 games of Week 2 in the 2026 NFL season are now graded. Before kickoff our model picked 11 of the 16 winners, the same number as the market favorite. THE PLAY, our one headline call for each game, won 6 and lost 10, a gain of $14.39 on $80 staked. During play the live engine's win probability scored a Brier of 0.172 over 13,112 moments, ahead of the incumbent model at 0.173 and ahead of the market at 0.175, where lower is better.
Pregame calls
Before kickoff the model picked a winner in 16 games, and those picks won 11 and lost 5. The market favorite, the side the market priced above 50%, won 11 and lost 5. Against the spread our side won 8 and lost 8, and on totals it won 6 and lost 10. Scored as probabilities, our pregame win chances had a Brier score of 0.226 against 0.236 for the market, where lower is better, so ours were the closer forecasts this week.
THE PLAY and the $5 ledger
THE PLAY is the one headline call we publish for each game, and the $5 ledger stakes every pregame pick at $5 at the price it showed. THE PLAY won 6 and lost 10 across 16 games, winning 37.5% of the time at an average price of 33.4 cents, a gain of $14.39 on $80 staked. The largest single return was a gain of $14.23 on NO: TB by 3.0+ in CLE at TB, priced at 26 cents.
Every pick in the ledger together, 3,887 of them, won 37.3% of the time at an average price of 38.6 cents and finished with a loss of $1,472.02 on $19,435 staked. By market, player props finished with a loss of $1,307.45, spreads a gain of $72.51, totals a loss of $388.97 and moneylines a gain of $151.90.
The live engine
During play the live engine reprices every game about every ten seconds. Across 13,112 in-game moments in 16 games its win probability scored a Brier of 0.172. The incumbent, a simpler baseline model, scored 0.173 and the market scored 0.175. Lower is better.
| Quarter | Moments | Engine | Incumbent | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 2,358 | 0.206 | 0.205 | 0.208 |
| Q2 | 4,542 | 0.184 | 0.180 | 0.186 |
| Q3 | 2,670 | 0.187 | 0.192 | 0.193 |
| Q4 | 3,542 | 0.123 | 0.128 | 0.124 |
| Game | 13,112 | 0.172 | 0.173 | 0.175 |
Overtime is left out of this grade, so 213 overtime moments were set aside.
In-game edges and hot plays
An in-game edge is a stretch where the engine disagreed with the market price on the same side, counted once at the first price it showed. Across 16 games the engine logged 939 edges, and the 854 that could be graded won 51.6% of the time at an average price of 51.8 cents. Held to the final they returned a loss of 1.5 cents per $1 contract after fees, and sold 15 minutes after entry they returned a loss of 5.5 cents.
Hot plays are the edges that come right after a score, a turnover or a big play. Across 16 games the engine logged 470 hot plays, and the 457 that could be graded won 51.4% of the time at an average price of 51.7 cents. Held to the final they returned a loss of 1.6 cents per $1 contract after fees, and sold 15 minutes after entry they returned a loss of 4.5 cents.
Live player props
Live prop projections were graded in 16 games, 484 props in all. At kickoff the average projection missed the final stat by 16.3, measured in each stat's own units, and by the end of the third quarter the average miss was 7.3. The Brier score of the projected chance of going over the line was 0.290 at kickoff and 0.109 at the end of the third quarter. The market's own chance scored 0.247 on the 381 props with a market price.
- Receiving yards, 177 props: an average miss of 21.5 yards at kickoff and 9.5 yards at the end of the third quarter.
- Receptions, 175 props: an average miss of 1.6 catches at kickoff and 0.8 catches at the end of the third quarter.
- Rushing yards, 100 props: an average miss of 16.9 yards at kickoff and 6.7 yards at the end of the third quarter.
- Passing yards, 32 props: an average miss of 65.4 yards at kickoff and 32.6 yards at the end of the third quarter.
The best and worst calls
The best call is the pregame winner pick where we disagreed most with the market and were right, and the worst is the one where we disagreed most and were wrong. The best came in MIN at CHI: we gave MIN a 53% chance to win when the market gave them 37%, and MIN won 9 to 3. The worst came in CAR at ATL: we gave ATL a 60% chance to win when the market gave them 43%, and CAR won 34 to 3.
Every game
| Game | Final | Our winner | Spread | Total | THE PLAY | $5 result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at BUF | BUF 41, DET 31 | BUF 62%, won | DET +5.5, lost | Under 54.5, lost | Dalton Kincaid under 50 rec yds, lost | −$5.00 |
| CAR at ATL | CAR 34, ATL 3 | ATL 60%, lost | ATL +2.5, lost | Over 43.5, lost | ATL by 8.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| CIN at HOU | CIN 20, HOU 6 | HOU 59%, lost | HOU −3, lost | Over 45.5, lost | Over 47.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| CLE at TB | CLE 23, TB 19 | TB 55%, lost | CLE +8.5, won | Over 41.5, won | NO: TB by 3.0+, won | +$14.23 |
| GB at NYJ | GB 20, NYJ 17 (OT) | GB 65%, won | GB −3.5, lost | Over 44.5, lost | Over 47.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| MIN at CHI | MIN 9, CHI 3 | MIN 53%, won | MIN +4.5, won | Over 46.5, lost | NO: CHI by 3.0+, won | +$7.82 |
| NO at BAL | NO 24, BAL 17 | BAL 65%, lost | NO +8.5, won | Over 45.5, lost | NO: BAL by 3.0+, won | +$13.52 |
| PHI at TEN | PHI 24, TEN 20 | PHI 58%, won | TEN +7, won | Over 39.5, won | Over 43.5, won | +$8.51 |
| PIT at NE | NE 20, PIT 3 | NE 63%, won | NE −4.5, won | Over 41.5, lost | Over 44.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| JAX at DEN | DEN 20, JAX 13 | DEN 53%, won | JAX +2.5, lost | Over 45.5, lost | JAX by 8.0+, lost | −$5.00 |
| LV at LAC | LV 26, LAC 14 | LAC 62%, lost | LV +6.5, won | Under 43.5, won | NO: LAC by 3.0+, won | +$10.15 |
| MIA at SF | SF 35, MIA 13 | SF 68%, won | MIA +12.5, lost | Over 44.5, won | Over 49.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| SEA at ARI | SEA 31, ARI 7 | SEA 58%, won | ARI +3.5, lost | Over 40.5, lost | Over 44.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| WAS at DAL | DAL 37, WAS 20 | DAL 57%, won | WAS +3.5, lost | Over 51.5, won | Over 59.5, lost | −$5.00 |
| IND at KC | KC 33, IND 30 (OT) | KC 54%, won | IND +6, won | Over 46.5, won | Over 51.5, won | +$10.15 |
| NYG at LA | LA 28, NYG 6 | LA 69%, won | LA −6.5, won | Over 47.5, lost | Over 54.5, lost | −$5.00 |
How to read this
A win rate means little without the price paid, so every rate here sits beside the average price, and a price of 53 cents means the market put the chance at about 53%. A Brier score measures how far a probability sat from what happened, from 0 for a perfect forecast to 1 for a certain one that was wrong, so lower is better. In-game returns are per $1 contract after fees.
Every game, every edge and every prop behind these numbers is on the NFL results page, graded as each game finishes.